Trump’s Trade War Handed China a Strategic Advantage
The president signaled that the U.S. doesn’t care about its allies and trading partners—including Taiwan.
Donald Trump’s tariff campaign has a clear geopolitical winner, and it’s not the United States. It’s China.
After the U.S. president announced steep tariffs earlier this month on imports from many countries around the world, including some of America’s closest trading partners and military allies, markets plunged, so Trump backed down significantly. But the damage is done: The most striking thing about Trump’s original tariff list, which included islands inhabited mostly by penguins but excluded Russia and North Korea, is how harsh it was to countries that for decades have based their security on working with the United States.
Japan, South Korea, and Thailand—three strategically located states with successful economies—all faced tariffs of 24 percent or more. Other countries, such as India and Vietnam, that are not formal U.S. allies but share America’s interest in countering Chinese power in Asia, faced high tariffs as well. Taiwan, a democratically governed island that sells essential microchips to the United States and credibly fears invasion by China, faced a 32 percent tariff. Even though Trump suspended these and other tariffs for 90 days as he wrestles with the economic mess caused by his choices, they remain a lingering threat.
Trump is showing that he is willing to violate long-standing norms and strike at the core of other countries’ prosperity—and that nothing in the American system will stop a president hell-bent on punishing his own country’s allies for the sake of domestic politics.
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This won’t just drive traditional allies away from the U.S.; it will also likely push them toward closer economic relations with the world’s other superpower. China offers access to raw-earth minerals and deep, well-functioning supply chains. Chinese leaders can present themselves, unlike their mercurial American counterparts, as reliable and steady economic partners.
Meanwhile, Trump’s anti-trade campaign also furthers Beijing’s goal of gaining control of Taiwan. Although the U.S. is not formally pledged to defend the island militarily, Washington has maintained a policy of strategic ambiguity: The mere possibility of American military action to protect Taiwan helps deter Chinese aggression; U.S. reliance on Taiwanese chips made such a defense seem all the more credible. Trump’s posture changes that. The U.S. is now treating its allies and potential allies in the western Pacific region more as economic threats than as strategic partners.
Even signatories to mutual-defense treaties that include the United States now have reason to doubt American fealty. The president proposed a 20 percent tariff on the European Union, whose membership includes the NATO states whose military forces fought alongside the United States in Afghanistan for two decades. If the U.S. is willing to wage economic warfare against its friends and allies, can it really be trusted to fight for them? Longtime allies can see Trump’s belittling, condescension, and naked threats. When he promises to make Canada the 51st state, or cozies up to Vladimir Putin while abandoning democratic Ukraine, people around the world hear him.
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Trump fundamentally misunderstands the sources of American power in the world. Over the years, the American commitment to Japan and South Korea allowed both of these states to evolve into prosperous and well-functioning democracies. And in exchange, both have become crucial props for U.S. power in East Asia. Contrary to Trump’s claims that the United States is being ripped off by the two countries, both provide the United States with major strategic advantages: excellent bases, logistical support, their own strong and advanced militaries.
Without the additional capacity that these strong allies provide, the U.S. would stand no realistic possibility of fighting a war in the West Pacific. The very industries that American protectionists view as unfair competition provide military depth to the U.S.: As China ramps up production of naval vessels, the United States desperately needs to collaborate with Japanese and South Korean shipbuilders if it hopes to keep pace.
In Trump’s world of red hats and waving flags, offending faraway allies in Asia might not seem so important. But other countries have decisions to make. And without a reliable United States to collaborate with, reaching an accommodation with China will start to look not just appealing but inevitable.